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 Topic n° 777 |
NFL QB realignment Identifying biggest risers fallers during one of most volatile seasons ever at po |
il 18/03/2024 @ 10:01
da TomBrady
visitatore
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If the 2022 NFL season has taught us anything, it's to forget what you thought you knew about quarterbacks. and have ascended to superstars in make-or-break seasons and might be the best QBs from the 2020 cla s. and have taken the year two leap and has regre sed.The might not have gotten the short end of the stick in the Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford trade. is better than .Wilson and are busts after signing two of the three largest deals in NFL history. and are having their worst seasons and are no longer at the top of the QB hierarchy.Entering the year, all those narratives would have sounded crazy. Now they aren't so farfetched. Yes, it's been a wild year for the league's quarterback landscape.Statistically, it's one the biggest shakeups ever. I looked at the movement on the NFL pa sing leaderboards of every qualified QB season since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger and found the following to be true:The average QB has seen their NFL OJ Mayo Jersey pa ser rating rank change by 10 spots compared with last season. It's the second-most volatile season since 1970 behind 2015 (10.2 average change).The biggest outliers: Hurts moved up from 22nd to first; Lawrence from 30th to 11th; Tagovailoa from 19th to 2nd; Wilson from fifth to 27th; Rodgers from first to 13th. You catch my drift.Since NFL pa ser rating isn't everyone's favorite flavor, I also looked at Pro Football Reference's era-adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+). It's a better version of NFL pa ser rating, adjusted for era and normalizes everything on a scale where 100 is average. Even by those standards, this is the fourth-most volatile QB season since 1970 (9.4 average change) behind 1971, 2014 and 2015. So what happened to what we thought we knew? And what's next for the biggest risers and fallers? I dive in below: PHI QB #1 CMP%68.0YDs3157TD22INT3YD/Att8.14 Stat to know: He is the first QB all-time with 12 wins, 30 total touchdowns and five or fewer turnovers through 13 games of a season.What changed?The above combination is a perfect recipe of winning and production . It's been powered by his dramatic improvement as a pocket pa ser. Nobody has seen a bigger rise in their pa ser rating inside the pocket from last season. deserves some credit. He's caught six of Hurts' NFL-best 10 touchdown pa ses traveling 25-plus yards downfield. What's next?A ma sive payday this offseason that will make him one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL. MIA QB #1 CMP%65.5YDs3004TD22INT5YD/Att8.71 Stat to know: His ANY/A+ has gone from 95 in 2021 to 136 in 2022 (100 is average). It's the sixth-largest year-over-year increase by any qualified QB since 1970.What changed? A new head coach (Mike McDaniel) and WR1 (). So much for major question marks about his ability to stretch the field. The offense has been hitting lightning quick strikes over the middle part of the field, as Tua is second in the NFL in completion rate 15-plus yards downfield.What's next? A big payday like Hurts, barring an extended slump as Miami tries to make the postseason during a tough final stretch. JAC QB #16 CMP%66.2YDs3202TD20INT6YD/Att6.99 Stat to know: His pa ser rating has increased 23.5 points from last season, the largest year-over-year jump by a No. 1 overall pick from year one to two since Terry Bradshaw in 1971 (among qualified QBs in both seasons).What changed? He made the jump a lot of No. 1 picks have historically made (Burrow, Goff, Manning, etc) after Doug Pederson cleaned up the me s he inherited from Urban Meyer. Lawrence has also benefitted from better weapons (, , return of ), and he's begun to showcase the arm talent that made him one of the best QB prospects ever. He has 10 touchdown pa ses and zero interceptions in his past five games. All but one of those touchdown pa ses have come outside the pocket. He has a near perfect pa ser rating (158.1) on throws 10-20 yards downfield and outside the numbers over that span. Here's a prime example: On fourth-and-5 on the game-winning drive against the , he released the ball before the receiver was out of his break. Perfect anticipation, Milwaukee Bucks Jersey arm strength and accuracy that illustrate his growth.What's next? Consistency. Can he avoid letdowns like Week 13 in Detroit? A better supporting cast is on the way in the name of , too, but the offensive line could also use an upgrade. (). CHI QB #1 CMP%61.7YDs1896TD13INT10YD/Att7.49 Stat to know: His 711 rush yards in his past seven games are the most by a quarterback in a seven-game span all-time.What changed? I knew he was fast. But who expected him to turn into overnight? It's not just his rushing, either. He's put up league-average pa sing numbers since Week 7, when Chicago made changes on offense to play to his strengths. Since then, he is among the NFL leaders in percent of plays |
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